Open de Espana Day 2

Open de Espana Rd.2 3-ball

Garrido $2.65 to beat Gonzalez/Noren (Sports Alive, Centrebet)
Risking 1.5 units

Risking a bit more here given Gonzalez's position on the leaderboard.

Open de Espana Round 1

Open de Espana: Rd. 1 3-balls

Garrido $2.50 to beat Gonzalez/Noren (Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

E.Molinari $2.37 to beat Fernandez-Castano/Monty (Centrebet)
Risking 1 unit

Dodd $2.60 to beat Dredge/Vanscik (Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

Tournament Matchups for Quail Hollow and open de Espana

Quail Hollow 72 hole matchup

Chalmers -111 to beat Snedeker (Sportsbet)
To win 2 units


Open de Espana 72 hole matchups

Dredge -115 to beat Bourdy (Sportsbet)
To win 2 units

Levet -111 to beat Fernandez-Castano (Centrbet)
To win 2 units

Garrido -111 to beat Noren (Sports Alive)
To win 2 units

Levet -103 to beat Noren (Pinnacle)
To win 3 units

Weekly Wrap w/e 25/4/2010

Another positive week with the 3-balls making a solid contribution. Overall betting was interupted by weather disruptions in both Louisiana and South Korea. Overall we were up 10.34 units.

Ballantine's Rd.3 plays

Ballantine's Rd.3 3-ball

Davies $2.25 to beat Kang/Kulacz (Centrebet, Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

Ames snuck home on the PGA tour, setting up another solid week. Hopefully Daives can top it off for me.

Zurich Classic Day 2 play

Broke even yesterday in Korea, but had a good win in the first round on the PGA.

Zurich Classic Rd.2 3-balls

Ames $2.85 to beat Imada/Palmer (Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

Zurich Classic Round 1 plays

Zurich Classic Rd.1 3-balls

Crane $2.62 to beat Garcia/Wilson (Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

Pernice $2.90 to beat Goggin/Thompson (Sportsbet)
Risking 1.5 units

A little bit extra on Pernice as it appears compelling value. Goggin ($2.60) appears way under fair value on my numbers.

Ballantine's Rd.1 3-balls

Hoping for a greater contribution from the 18-hole plays this week.

Anthony Kim $1.85 to beat Larrazabal/Lam (Sports Alive, Sportsbet)
To win 1 unit


Graeme McDowell $2.37 to beat Stenson/Nirat (Centrebet)
Risking 1 unit

Tournament Matchups (PGA and Euro/Asian)

This isnt a blog designed for commentary, but I have to say that Brian Davis' actions last week in the playoff were a welcome sight after the infantile performence of Michelle Wie. But I digress.......

Verizon Heritage (PGA Tour)

Ben Crane -108 to beat Mike Weir (Sports Alive)
To win 2 units


Ballantine's Championship (Euro/Asian PGA)

Ross McGowan -111 to beat Oliver Wilson (Centrebet)
To win 2 units

Ross McGowan -110 to beat Alexander Noren (Greek)
To win 2 units

Weekly Wrap

A good week overall, winning 11.85 units (note: the Black/Romero play was a wash as Romero didnt tee off). Follows on from the +7.25 result last week. Ames was a good comeback after he was in danger of missing the cut and Weir had shot 5 under in round 1. A bit of luck (natural variance?) there.

Onto to next week where the PGA is in New Orleans and the European Tour travels to South Korea.

Verizon Heritage Rd4 play

Verizon Heritage Rd.4 2-balls

Van Pelt $2.65 to beat Villegas (Sports Alive....ties lose)
Risking 1 unit


McDowell was a winner against Bowditch earlier in the day. Need Tom Watson to have a good round tonight to secure a solid profit for the working week.

China Open Rd4 2-ball

China Open: Rd.4 2-balls

McDowell $1.70 to beat Bowditch (Sportsalive....ties lose)
To win 1 unit


A bit more luck in the 2-balls last night in the States with Ames winning easily, and Campbell sneaking home after Owen bogeyed the last.

Verizon Heritage Rd.3

No joy with first round plays (although they all won in the second round of course!!). Nonetheless, the 72 hole plays are favouring us currently, with the Pampling/Goggin play already a win.

Round 3 2-balls

Campbell $1.73 to beat Owen (Centrebet)
To win 1 unit

Ames $1.75 to beat Beckman (Sportsbet)
To win 2 units

Ties lose in both cases. Good luck to whatever you chose to play.

Outback Steakhouse Pro-Am

54 hole matchups

Watson -125 over Haas (Centrebet)
To win 2 units

Watson -118 over Roberts (Sportsbet)
To win 2 units

Black -124 over Romero (Pinnacle)
To win 3 units

More disappointment with the 18 hole plays last night. They will be more volatile than the 72 hole plays so lower staking is generally appropriate.

Verizon Heritage day 1 2-ball

Verizon Heritage: Rd.1 2-ball

Ames $2.10 to beat Gay (Sportsbet...ties lose)
Risking 2 units

Gay was a runaway winner of this event last year, but my model is suggesting that this has been well and truly overpriced into this market. More recently, Gay's form has been average while Ames has been his usual consistent. The clincher is that Ames has a 6-1 H2H record over Gay at this venue (note: Ames didnt play this event last year), and a strong 10-4 H2H record over the last 12 months at all venue.

Verizon Heritage: Tournament matchups

Not too many plays this week.....finding value a bit hard to find.

Verizon Heritage: 72 hole matchup

Pampling -125 to beat Goggin (Sportsalive, IAS)
To win 3 units

Ames -115 to beat Weir (Unibet)
To win 2 units


Not an overly long course with small greens. Distance is not crucial, with GIR and short game paramount.

Volvo China Open Day 1

A bit late with these, but still time to get on.

China Open: Rd.1 3-balls

Y.E. Yang $2.40 to beat Stenson/Strange (Centrebet)
Risking 1 unit

Hiratsuka $2.55 to beat Bhullar/Maybin (Sportsalive)
Risking 1 unit


Heritage plays to follow in a few hours.

Masters Wrap

A terrible week with the 18-hole plays was more than offset by a sweep in the 72 hole plays. Overall up about 7 points on the plays posted here. Onto the Heirtage next week at Harbour Town, and perhaps plays from other tours around the world.

Masters Day 3

0-2 yesterday in the 3-balls. 72 hole plays are still in good shape, with 3 of the 6 already over the line with Sabbatini and McIlroy missing the cut. Solid leads in the other 3 matchups, but still a long way to go and a bad experience with Brandt Snedeker a couple of weeks ago was a timely reminder to never count the my money until the putting is done. Also taught me never to trust a megs.

A couple of 2-balls for today, which are preferable to 3-balls. The fewer variables the better.

Masters Rd.3: 2-balls

Goosen $1.70 to beat Slocum (Sportsalive....ties lose)
To win 1 unit

Kim $1.68 to beat Barnes (Sportsbet...ties lose)
To win 2 units

Masters Day 2

Our 3-ball matchups went 1-2 for a small loss of about 0.61 units. Furyk must have lost an arm on the back nine as he shot 44. However, the model doesnt allow for missing apendages so has plonked for weird Jim once again. Our 72 hole plays are looking OK, but plenty of golf still to play and natural variation can be a short term killer unless you are staking prudently. For the record, a bank of 100 units would be about right to follow my plays. Over the last 4 years my maximum drawdown has been of the order of 30 to 40 units. So a 100 unit bank seems fair enough. Anyway, day 2 is only an hour or so away (although TV coverage wont start for many hours!!). Day 2 plays below:

Masters: Rd.2 3-balls

Villegas $2.60 to beat Perry/McIlroy (Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

Furyk $2.20 to beat Cabrera/An (Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

Masters Day 1 matchups

These are some of the plays from my modelling of available matchups. Generally the 72 hole plays will have more capital at risk as there is a lower level of variation over 4 rounds, compared to a single round play. Lower variation implies lower risk, which means we can be more confident about our investment (assuming our method of calculating probabilities is sound). One footnote, the plays on KJ Choi were done prior to realising he was partnered with Tiger Woods in the first 2 rounds. Given the circus surrounding pants-man Woods, I would be a bit circumspect about investing on KJ. But my money was already down....rub of the green I suppose.

72 hole plays...prices may have changed

KJ Choi -105 to beat Z.Johnson (UNITAB...ties lose)
To win 3 units

KJ Choi -138 to beat Garcia (Pinnacle)
To win 3 units

Anthony Kim -143 to beat Garcia (Sports Alive)
To win 2 units

Marino -120 to beat Sabbatini (5Dimes)
To win 2 units

Kaymer -107 to beat McIlroy (Centrebet)
To win 2 units

Schwartzel -110 to beat McIlroy (5Dimes)
To win 2 units



Round 1: 3-balls

Furyk $1.90 to beat Cabrera/An (Sportsbet)
To win 1 unit

Kim $2.50 to beat Els/Ishikawa (Unitab)
Risking 1 unit

Villegas $2.35 to beat McIlroy/Perry (Unitab, TAB Sportsbet)
Risking 1 unit

On the tee

My first blog. Perhaps my last.....who knows? The future is uncertain and full of risk. In the very small universe of sports betting, I attempt to forge a living by quantifying risk and predicting the possibility of various outcomes. In other words, I gamble on sports. I could argue whether it is gambling or investing but thats a waste of time. Time will tell of the folly or otherwise of my endeavours. What I will do in this blog is to provide samples of my work and a hint of my methodology if it is of any interest to you.
The main sport I concentrate on is golf, as it is full of relevent statistical data and therefore can be modelled readily (but both punter and bookmaker alike it must be said). Wagers are generally head-2-head over both 18 holes and 72 holes. Samples of my modelling outputs are available:

2010:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9284
2009:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8080
2008:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6230
2007:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3652
2006:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2407

In summary, I made good profits in 2006(+28 units at about 24% profit on turnover), 2008(+49 units at 13% POT), and 2009 (+61 units at 17% POT), and am well ahead this year (+27 units at around 13%). 2007 produced a small but acceptable loss given the risk inherent in this particular pursuit (-7 units at around -4% POT). These are from my published wagers only. The model produces many wagers that are not published so I cannot verify, however the wider results are broadly in line with the smaller published sample.

Anyway, some thoughts and output on the Masters to follow. Cheers, Carbine.