On the tee

My first blog. Perhaps my last.....who knows? The future is uncertain and full of risk. In the very small universe of sports betting, I attempt to forge a living by quantifying risk and predicting the possibility of various outcomes. In other words, I gamble on sports. I could argue whether it is gambling or investing but thats a waste of time. Time will tell of the folly or otherwise of my endeavours. What I will do in this blog is to provide samples of my work and a hint of my methodology if it is of any interest to you.
The main sport I concentrate on is golf, as it is full of relevent statistical data and therefore can be modelled readily (but both punter and bookmaker alike it must be said). Wagers are generally head-2-head over both 18 holes and 72 holes. Samples of my modelling outputs are available:

2010:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9284
2009:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8080
2008:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6230
2007:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3652
2006:http://www.puntingace.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2407

In summary, I made good profits in 2006(+28 units at about 24% profit on turnover), 2008(+49 units at 13% POT), and 2009 (+61 units at 17% POT), and am well ahead this year (+27 units at around 13%). 2007 produced a small but acceptable loss given the risk inherent in this particular pursuit (-7 units at around -4% POT). These are from my published wagers only. The model produces many wagers that are not published so I cannot verify, however the wider results are broadly in line with the smaller published sample.

Anyway, some thoughts and output on the Masters to follow. Cheers, Carbine.